Simulating energy demand and emissions of the residential building stock in Germany by taking occupant characteristics into account

A dynamic simulation model of the German residential building stock has been developed. It allows assessing eco-political instruments to reduce final energy demand in buildings and to quantify the corresponding emissions of CO2, NOx, SO2, CH4, NMVOC, and particulate matter (PM). The model simulates the implementation of energy efficiency measures and heating systems based on renewable energy. Socio-economic attributes of building owners and occupants, such as household income, age structure and household size, are accounted for in the investment behaviour of building owners. Results show that the effects of regulatory instruments alone are limited. Ecological awareness-raising and information strategies targeting profit maker behaviour look promising for substantial reductions of final energy demand in the residential building sector. Assuming constant prospective energy prices, when a refurbishment takes place, the economic potential of final energy demand reduction of refurbishment is limited to a 32% reduction from 2007 to 2030. Decreasing non-renewable energy demand by increasing biomass combustion may result in a strong increase in PM emissions. Future work aims at improving the quality and availability of data concerning the investment behaviour of households as well as analysing the social impacts of energetic modernisation activity regarding residential buildings.